España – Panel De Control - Dif Broker

España – Panel De Control


Hemos decidido crear un panel de control que refleje la situación española y que permita a cualquier inversor, de una manera rápida y sencilla, conocer la situación real.

Noviembre 2012 (actualizado 23 / 07 / 15)

  Precio del petróleo (US$) (1) Tasa de Interés a c/p (%) (2) Tasa de Interés a l/p (%) (3) Tipo de Cambio (EURUSD) Inflación (%) Desempleo (%) PIB *
Programa de Estabilidad de España (2015 - 2018)  67,7 0,0 1,3 1,1 0,6 22,1 2,90%
 
Valor de Mercado 56,67 -0,03 0,02 1,102 -0,182 22,5 2,70%
 
Variación (Programa de Estabilidad/ Valor de Mercado) -22,2% -0,03% -1,28% 0,18% -21,8%

1,80%

-6,90%
Balance Energético (Petróleo) 2014 38.788.166.750,00 €            
2015****

- 8.610.973.018,50 €

           

(1) Contrato de Futuro – (LCO) Crude Oil Brent CRD
(2) Contrato de Futuro – (FEI) Euribor 3 meses
(3) Obligaciones del Tesoro a 10 años
(4) PIB / Población Activa
(5) PIB / Población Total
* PIB: 1.063.686.000.000,00€ (2014)
**** Balanza Energética en 2014 x Variación 

La información que analizamos en el anterior recuadro es:

PETRÓLEO: porque los costes de energía (Petróleo) representa mitad de nuestro déficit comercial. Por lo tanto, cualquier cambio en el precio del petróleo, tiene un impacto importante en la economía española, tanto positivo como negativo.

TASA DE INTERÉS A CORTO PLAZO: Que se utilizó para el Programa de Estabilidad de España (2011-2014). Este dato quizá tenga poco impacto sobre la población, pero es muy importante para el Banco de España y los bancos españoles.

TIPO DE CAMBIO: Se extraen dos informaciones a partir de este dato. La primera y más importante se relaciona con el coste de la energía que se paga en dólares, y el segundo se relaciona con el hecho de que una devaluación del euro es teóricamente más ventajosa para las empresas exportadoras. En esta columna, la variación sólo tiene en cuenta el impacto sobre el precio de la energía.

TASA DE INTERÉS A LARGO PLAZO: La intención es presenta una perspectiva sobre el coste de financiación del presupuesto. Como se puede observar, las tasas presupuestarias fueron de 3´7%, mientras que el contrato con la troika fue del 3´5%.

TASA DE INFLACIÓN Y VARIACIÓN PORCENTUAL EN RELACIÓN CON EL PRESUPUESTO: Este número tiene un impacto social muy importante.

DESEMPLEO: También con mucho impacto social.

PIB: Nos refleja la pérdida de la riqueza en líquido y en términos porcentuales.

 

  Población Deuda del Estado (€) Mayores Exportaciones Tenedores principales de la Deuda Española
Total 46.440.000 708.373.000.000 Productos semielaborados de cobre y sus aleaciones Seguros/Fondos
pensiones/Fondos
inversión 17,30%
Activa 22.900.000
46.449,17€ (4)
30.934,00 Materias primas y semimanufacturas de plástico Administraciones públicas 6,40%
Per Capita 22.904,52€ (5) 15.254,00 Equipos, componentes y accesorios de automoción No Residentes 50,50%
Salario Medio (€)

1.891,50

  Carnes y despojos congelados, Confección femenina Entidades de crédito 23,40%

Este cuadro nos muestra una información importante sobre España.

Hemos relacionado la Deuda del Estado con la población total y activa y de esta manera lo podemos comparar con el salario medio anual. Gracias a esta comparación vemos lo que le corresponde a cada habitante en relación con lo que cobra anualmente de media.

Creemos que de esta manera se puede ver de una forma sencilla la situación y nuestra responsabilidad individual en el problema, incluso sin que tengamos culpa de su creación.

Por otro lado, podemos ver quienes son los tenedores de esta deuda (quienes la han adquirido) y los porcentajes correspondientes en función del total. Vemos que más de la mitad está sostenida por NO residentes y la otra parte se divide en fondos de pensiones/inversiones y seguros, entidades financieras y administraciones públicas.

Cualquier sugerencia para mejorar este estudio, la puede dirigir a info@difbroker.es

Fuente: INE, Banco de España, Ministerio de Industria, Energía y Turismo (www.minetur.es), Ministerio de Economía y Hacienda (www.meh.es), Tesoro público (www.tesoro.es), Comisión Nacional de Energía (www.cne.es), CIA - The World Factbook

 

































































 

 


Comentarios

Rentabilidad de la deuda pública
Nombre Roque el 2014-10-07 13:18
Riesgo sin rentabilidad: los bancos centrales aplanan el interés de la deuda pública

http://www.elconfidencial.com/mercados/inversion/2014-09-08/riesgo-sin-rentabilidad-los-bancos-centrales-aplanan-el-interes-de-la-deuda-publica_186237/

La deuda pública
Nombre Roque el 2013-06-14 15:58
Apesar de los mayores ingresos fiscales públicos cayeron 6.7% en el primer trimestre de 2013 en comparación con el año anterior. Los ingresos del IVA se redujo un 9,9% en el último año.

El déficit público en abril de 2013 es el 25 007 millones en abril de 2012 fue de 24 763 millones en abril de 2009 y 6 553 millones.

El déficit presupuestario de este año ya está en el 2,38% del PIB, cuando el compromiso no es superior a 3,5% a fines de año (fuente: libremercado.com).

La deuda pública y la deuda privada 2000 - 2012: http://www.dif.pt/c/document_library/get_file?folderId=24244&name=DLFE-20901.jpg

Spain Drains Fund Backing Pensions
Nombre Roque el 2013-01-04 15:53
MADRID—Spain has been quietly tapping the country's richest piggy bank, the Social Security Reserve Fund, as a buyer of last resort for Spanish government bonds, raising questions about the fund's role as guarantor of future pension payouts.

Now the scarcely noticed borrowing spree, carried out amid a prolonged economic crisis, is about to end, because there is little left to take. At least 90% of the €65 billion ($85.7 billion) fund has been invested in increasingly risky Spanish debt, according to official figures, and the government has begun withdrawing cash for emergency payments.


Although the trend has drawn little public attention or controversy, it has become a matter of concern for the relatively few independent financial analysts who study the fund, which is used to guarantee future payments of pensions. They say the government will soon have one less recourse to finance itself as it faces another year of recession and painful austerity measures to close a big budget deficit.

That pressure, some analysts said, could force Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government to seek a rescue this year from the European Union's bailout fund, a politically risky course he seeks to avoid.

In addition, there are worries that Social Security reserves for paying future pensioners are running out much quicker than expected.

In November, the government withdrew €4 billion from the reserve fund to pay pensions, the second time in history it had withdrawn cash. The first time was in September, when it took €3 billion to cover unspecified treasury needs.

Together, the emergency withdrawals surpassed the legal annual limit, so the government temporarily raised the cap.

Read More:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323374504578217384062120520.html?mod=europe_home

Government Gross Debt 2012-2017
Nombre Roque el 2012-10-26 15:51
http://www.dif.pt/c/document_library/get_file?folderId=580404&name=DLFE-17402.jpg

Spain jobs woes deepen as unemployment rate hits 25%
Nombre Roque el 2012-10-26 15:20
Spain’s unemployment rate reached 25pc, official data showed of Friday, the highest level since the nation’s transition to democracy, with further layoffs predicted next year.

Tens of thousands of jobs were lost between July and September raising the number of unemployed to 5.78 million people, Spain’s National Statistics Institute reported, a level unseen since the dictatorship of Francisco Franco ended in the mid-1970s.

The number of Spanish households in which every member is out of work climbed to 1.74 million, roughly one tenth of all Spanish families.

The rise in the number of jobless comes as Spain sinks deeper into recession, with output expected to decline for the third consecutive quarter.

It comes as Spain struggles with deep austerity measures that have forced many out onto the street in protest.

Spain Unveils New Set of Overhauls
Nombre Roque el 2012-09-28 15:24
The Spanish government on Thursday unveiled a package of regulatory overhauls, tax increases and spending cuts for 2013, gaining a short-term market reprieve as concerns mount over Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's ability to stabilize the euro zone's fourth-largest economy.

Read More:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443916104578021692765950384.html

How many gold medals will get them out of debt?
Nombre Roque el 2012-08-06 17:25
http://www.dif.pt/image/image_gallery?img_id=572307

Why Spain is Not Greece
Nombre Roque el 2012-08-06 17:05
http://www.scribd.com/doc/102090963/Why-Spain-is-Not-Greece

Los municipios costeros, los más endeudados
Nombre Roque el 2012-07-31 10:31
http://www.ais-int.com/la-deuda-de-los-ayuntamientos-espanoles-sobre-el-mapa.html

Spain Sells EUR3B Treasury Bills
Nombre Roque el 2012-07-24 10:43
The Spanish Treasury sold EUR3.048 billion of three-month and six-month treasury bills at auction Tuesday, it said.

The Treasury sought to sell EUR2 billion to EUR3 billion of the t-bills.

The following are details of the auction, with amounts in euro. Figures in brackets are data from the previous auction, held June 26.

Issue three-month t-bills
Maturity Oct. 19, 2012
Bids received 4.792 bln
Bids accepted 1.628 bln
Bid-to-cover ratio 2.94 (2.60)
Average yield 2.434% (2.362%)
Average price 99.436 (99.452)
Maximum yield 2.650 (2.500%)
Minimum price 99.386 (99.420)
Settlement day July 27, 2012

Issue six-month t-bills
Maturity Jan. 18, 2013
Bids received 4.287 bln
Bids accepted 1.420 bln
Bid-to-cover ratio 3.02 (2.82)
Average yield 3.691% (3.237%)
Average price 98.238 (98.512)
Maximum yield 3.950% (3.369%)
Minimum price 98.116 (98.453)
Settlement day July 27, 2012

Eurostat - Government debt at the end of the first quarter 2012
Nombre Roque el 2012-07-24 10:42
More Information: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-23072012-AP/EN/2-23072012-AP-EN.PDF

If member states leave the Economic and Monetary Union?
Nombre Roque el 2012-07-09 13:15
http://www.dif.pt/c/document_library/get_file?folderId=24244&name=DLFE-15602.pdf

The euro crisis - A real mess
Nombre Roque el 2012-07-03 11:32
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/07/euro-crisis?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/arealmess

The funding needs of Spanish banks and what’s next for Spain.
Nombre Roque el 2012-06-26 10:26
http://www.scribd.com/doc/98172252/Open-Europe-Briefing

Financing needs of Spain and Italy in the next couple of years.
Nombre Roque el 2012-06-25 09:55
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012/06/22/some-unpleasant-eurozone-arithmetic/#axzz1yFnDEQQQ

Working Out of Debt
Nombre Roque el 2012-06-25 09:50
Link: http://www.dif.pt/c/document_library/get_file?folderId=24244&name=DLFE-15401.pdf

The deleveraging process that began in 2008 is proving to be long and painful. Historical experience, particularly post–World War II debt reduction episodes, which the McKinsey Global Institute reviewed in a report two years ago, suggested this would be the case.1 And the eurozone’s debt crisis is just the latest demonstration of how toxic the consequences can be when countries have too much debt and too little growth.
We recently took another look forward and back—at the relevant lessons from history about how governments can support economic recovery amid deleveraging and at the signposts business leaders can watch to see where economies are in that process. We reviewed the experience of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain in depth, but the signals should be relevant for any country that’s deleveraging.
Overall, the deleveraging process has only just begun. During the past two and a half years, the ratio of debt to GDP, driven by rising government debt, has actually grown in the aggregate in the world’s ten largest developed economies (for more, see sidebar, “Deleveraging: Where are we now?” on page 12). Private-sector debt has fallen, however, which is in line with historical experience: overextended households and corporations typically lead the deleveraging process; governments begin to reduce their debts later, once they have supported the economy into recovery.

Spanish Government Debt Level Jumps in First Quarter
Nombre JDeus el 2012-06-15 19:05
--Spanish government debt level jumps to 72.1% of GDP in first quarter
--Debt level has risen by over 30 percentage points since 2008

--Government forecasts year-end ratio of 79.8%



Spain's debt level jumped in the first quarter of this year, with the government scrambling to cover a gaping funding gap in a weak economy, central bank data showed Friday.

The general government debt level rose to 72.1% of gross domestic product in the first quarter from 68.5% in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the data. That figure includes debt for the country's central, regional and municipal governments.

While the size of Spain's debt relative to economic output compares favorably with a euro-zone average of 88% of GDP at the end of 2011, it has risen by more than 30 percentage points since the collapse of a housing boom in 2008 that sent the economy into a tailspin and slashed government tax revenue. The rapid rise in the ratio, coupled with concerns about the country's banking sector, has spooked investors and helped send government borrowing costs on 10-year debt to a record high of 6.96% Thursday, near the 7% level at which Greece, Portugal and Ireland started to lose market access.

The yield on 10-year bonds eased to 6.83% Thursday, as euro-zone financial assets benefited from increased optimism about the likelihood of Greece remaining in the euro after key national elections this weekend.

Spain has already asked the European Union for up to EUR100 billion in aid to help recapitalize a banking system struggling to digest its toxic real-estate assets. Speculation has been mounting the government will also need a bailout.

The Spanish government has estimated its debt load will rise to 79.8% this year as it struggles to finance a budget deficit that hit almost 9% of GDP in 2011. The banking aid, which will be funneled through the government, could increase the debt load by another 10 percentage points.

Spain, a slightly bigger Kick
Nombre Alejandro Civantes el 2012-03-28 15:59
Yesterday, we took a quick look at Italian bond issuance since October of last year. Today it is Spain’s turn. I think they have actually done a
better job. While the weighted average maturity of new Italian debt was only until August 2014, Spanish issuance has had an average weighted maturity of July 2015, almost a full year longer.
Yesterday, we took a quick look at Italian bond issuance since October of last year. Today it is Spain’s turn. I think they have actually done a
better job. While the weighted average maturity of new Italian debt was only until August 2014, Spanish issuance has had an average weighted maturity of July 2015, almost a full year longer.
Generally I’m impressed that they haven’t catered their issuance to the LTRO program as much as Italy and have done a better job at issuing debt that doesn’t have to be rolled almost immediately.

The concern I have though, is that Spain has issued almost €100 billion of debt since November, compared to €156 billion by Italy. Italy’s total debt is €1.63 trillion (not including all the debt they have guaranteed), so Italy has issued less than 10% of their currently outstanding debt since November. Spain, with “only” €711 billion debt, has issued 14% of that total since November. Spain seems to have been issuing even more guarantees than Italy and to even worse institutions from a credit perspective (ie, ones that are more likely to rely on the guarantee for actual payment), so the trajectory of Spanish debt is concerning.

The maturity of the debt issued is better than Italy and better than I expected. The amount of debt issued and the fact that so many of the entities (regions, municipalities, caja’s) that Spain is indirectly supporting are in deep trouble, remains the main concern.
( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-slightly-bigger-kick via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors )

Spanish Rebellion Uk Telegraph
Nombre Jesus el 2012-03-13 15:21
“Spain isn’t any old country that will allow itself to be humiliated by the German Chancellor.”
“The behaviour of the European Commission to¬wards Spain over recent days has been infamous and exceeds their treaty pow¬ers… these Eurocrats think they are the owners and mas¬ters of Spain.”
“Spain and other nations in the EU are sick and tired of Chancellor Merkel’s meddling and Germany’s usurpation – with the help of Sarkozy’s France and their pretended “executive presidency” that does not in fact exist in EU treaties.”
“Rajoy must not retreat one inch. The stakes are high and the country is in no mood to suffer humiliations from a Chancellor who is amassing all the savings of Eu¬rope and won’t listen to anybody, as if she were the absolute ruler of the Union. Merkel and the Commission should think hard before putting their hand into the sovereignty of this country – or any other – because it will be burned.”
Pablo Sebastián

Spanish Rebellion Uk Telegraph
Nombre Jesus el 2012-03-13 15:20
“Spain isn’t any old country that will allow itself to be humiliated by the German Chancellor.”
“The behaviour of the European Commission to¬wards Spain over recent days has been infamous and exceeds their treaty pow¬ers… these Eurocrats think they are the owners and mas¬ters of Spain.”
“Spain and other nations in the EU are sick and tired of Chancellor Merkel’s meddling and Germany’s usurpation – with the help of Sarkozy’s France and their pretended “executive presidency” that does not in fact exist in EU treaties.”
“Rajoy must not retreat one inch. The stakes are high and the country is in no mood to suffer humiliations from a Chancellor who is amassing all the savings of Eu¬rope and won’t listen to anybody, as if she were the absolute ruler of the Union. Merkel and the Commission should think hard before putting their hand into the sovereignty of this country – or any other – because it will be burned.”
Pablo Sebastián

Huelga de 29 de Marzo
Nombre Jesus el 2012-03-13 15:05
(FT): Spain’s two largest unions, Comisiones Obreras and UGT, voted on Friday to call for a general strike on March 29 against reforms they called “the most regressive in the history of Spanish democracy”.
The labour reforms of Mariano Rajoy’s gov¬ernment grant employers greater flexibility to pay lower compensation when they fire workers, a change Mr Rajoy argues is crucial to increase Spain’s economic competitive¬ness, but one that has enraged the country’s unions.

Huelga de 29 de Marzo
Nombre Jesus el 2012-03-13 15:03
(FT): Spain’s two largest unions, Comisiones Obreras and UGT, voted on Friday to call for a general strike on March 29 against reforms they called “the most regressive in the history of Spanish democracy”.
The labour reforms of Mariano Rajoy’s gov¬ernment grant employers greater flexibility to pay lower compensation when they fire workers, a change Mr Rajoy argues is crucial to increase Spain’s economic competitive¬ness, but one that has enraged the country’s unions.

otra informacion para ayudar
Nombre Alejandro Civantos el 2012-01-31 10:07
mirar esta infografia
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/eu/debt_piigs/images/demonocracy.info-who_loaned_piigs_the_money-watermark-large.jpg