April 2016 (update 29 / 04 / 16)
|Oil Price (£)||Market Short-Term Interest Rate (%) (1)||Market Gilt Rate (%) (2)||Exchange Rate (EUR/Sterling)||Inflation (CPI) (%)||LFS Unemployment (%)||GDP *|
|2016 Budget||24,9||0,5||1,7||1,28||0,7||5|| 2,00%
|OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2016 (2015-2016)||34,3||0,6||1,9||1,37||0,1||5,4||2,20%
Variation (Actual Value / 2016 Budget)
|Crude Oil Imports||2014||33.183.669.000,00$|
Source: Eurostat; European Commission; HM Treasury; Office for National Statistics;
|Population||Public Debt (£)||National Accounts Taxes (£)||Exports||UK Debt Holders|
|Total||64.100.000||1.607.398.000.000,00||Income Tax||182.000.000.000,00||Manufactured Goods /Fuels||Insuranse Companies and Pension Funds - 27,16%|
|51.176,35||Corporation Tax||43.000.000.000,00||Chemicals / Clothes||Overseas - 25,89%|
|25.076,41||VAT||138.000.000.000,00||Cars||Bank of England (Asset Purchase Facility)- 24,28%|
|Interest||39.000.000.000,00||Petroleum Tax||Beverages||Others - 22,67%|
|Median gross weekly (£)||528,00||Other Taxes||302.100.000.000,00||Military Equipment|
(1) 3-month sterling interbank rate (LIBOR)
(2) Weighted average interest rate on conventional gilts
(3) GDP / Labor Force
(4) GDP / Total Population
*GDP: £1.621.990.938.204,00 (2015)
By FP at 2016-06-16 16:35
In the Eurozone, about 11% of the government debt no longer qualifies for the ECB purchases because the yield is below 0.4%. And the ECB has much more debt to buy in order to meet its target.
Almost half of the Eurozone's government debt now has a negative yield.
16% of Europe's investment-grade corporate debt has a negative yield.
The amount of euro-denominated investment grade corporate bonds with negative yields has tripled over the last six weeks, a move accelerated by their inclusion in the ECB quantitative easing programme.
Around 16%, or 440 billion euros of the 2.8 trillion euros of these bonds now yield less than zero, up from five percent at the start of May according to Tradeweb data
How the Eurozone performed in 2016
By FP at 2016-06-09 12:15
Eurozone Performance: http://www.dif.pt/image/image_gallery?img_id=756824
Your pension under nuclear attack
By Roque at 2016-05-27 16:18
It’s not quite going nuclear. But chancellor George Osborne has played the “pensions” card in the Brexit debate. He’s said that younger individuals would be “between £223 and £335 a year worse off in retirement.” That’s if you’ve got £20,000 in pension savings and you’re contributing 8% of your earnings into a pension fund between 2016 and 2030.
He saved his best work for the over 65s, though. He warned that over £300 billion in pension assets for those over 65 could be destroyed by a “severe market shock.” He reckoned it to be a £32,000 hit to your nest egg, in a worst case scenario. A “moderate shock” would wipe out around £18,000, he claimed.
If it’s not going nuclear, it’s certainly a “scorched earth” tactic. According to the chancellor, leaving the EU would pretty much destroy everything in Britain. The economy, your retirement, trade, and perhaps the chancellor’s own political future. Just in case anyone missed the point, the chancellor elaborated. He said:
Much of the [Brexit] debate so far has focused on the potential economic fallout of a vote for Leave for those now in work, in terms of the impact on their jobs. But it's important that pensioners understand what's at stake for them too on 23 June. Pensioners who have worked hard all their lives deserve dignity, security and certainty in retirement. That's what we all hope for and what any responsible government should seek to provide.
A “responsible government” has had the Treasury publish three separate reports on the economic consequences of Brexit. All based on dubious assumptions. And all with exact figures designed to show you precisely how much voting “leave” will cost you 10-15 years from now. And the last of which was released just hours before the three-week period in which the government is obliged to go silent before the referendum.
If “Leave” wins, George Osborne won’t be to blame. He’s effectively thrown his political career down the drain in an effort to support Britain’s EU membership. The only logical conclusion you can reach is that he really believes it’s in Britain’s best interests to remain. We’ll see if his countrymen agree in about three weeks.
27 May 2016
By Dan Denning
MoneyWeek Research Limited
Portugal’s Debts Are (Also) Unsustainable
By em at 2015-07-20 12:58
IMF - World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update
By Roque at 2015-07-10 15:30
Slower Growth in Emerging Markets, a Gradual Pickup in Advanced Economies.
Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent in 2015, marginally lower than in 2014, with a gradual pickup in advanced economies and a slowdown in emerging market and developing economies. In 2016, growth is expected to strengthen to 3.8 percent.
Economic Forecast 2013 - 2016
By Roque at 2015-07-09 17:19
GDP growth (%, yoy) (Portugal / Italy / Greece / Spain)
Unemployment (%) (Portugal / Italy / Greece / Spain)
Public budget balance (% of GDP) (Portugal / Italy / Greece / Spain)
Gross public debt (% of GDP) (Portugal / Italy / Greece / Spain)
Debt and (not much) deleveraging by Mckinsey Global Institute
By Roque at 2015-06-16 15:38
Debt and (not much) deleveraging by Mckinsey Global Institute
Evolving Banking regulation by KPMG
By Roque at 2015-06-16 15:30
The second part of a document on the regulatory pressures on the European banks in general from KPMG. We can easily understand that the pressures will drive changes in bank structures.
The exacerbation of the crisis even with ECB intervention (last 3 months)
By Roque at 2015-06-16 11:35
The Greek Crisis is starting to have a impact on Eurozone countries. As you can see from Bloomberg, in the link in attach, interest rate for Portugal, Spain and Italy 10 year bonds have been going up for the past 2 months. French sovereign 10 year bonds have quadrupled in the last 2 months although still at microscopic 1,2%.
What will happen if Eurozone is to impose Capital Controls on Greece?
Just how big is Britain's debt mountain?
By DB at 2015-01-27 18:35
The wrong kind of growth
By Roque at 2014-10-24 11:53
Euro-zone debts are looking increasingly unsustainable
LAST week there was turmoil in financial markets. Investors started to worry about whether struggling euro-zone economies would be able to pay back their debt. Yields on Greece’s sovereign bonds (loans made to the Greek government) briefly exceeded 9%, a big jump. So how bad is euro-zone debt?
Profitability of the Public Debt of All Countries
By Roque at 2014-10-07 13:21
Click on the following link to check the profitability of the Public Debt of All Countries.
Drugs and prostitution to be included in UK GDP
By Roque at 2014-06-11 16:54
For the first time official statisticians are measuring the value to the UK economy of sex work and drug dealing – and they have discovered these unsavoury hidden-economy trades make roughly the same contribution as farming – and only slightly less than book and newspaper publishers added together.
Illegal drugs and prostitution boosted the economy by £9.7bn – equal to 0.7% of gross domestic product – in 2009, according to the ONS's first official estimate.
A breakdown of the data shows sex work generated £5.3bn for the economy that year, with another £4.4bn lift from a combination of cannabis, heroin, powder cocaine, crack cocaine, ecstasy and amphetamines.
According to the estimates there were 60,879 prostitutes in the UK in 2009, who had an average of 25 clients per week – each paying on average £67.16 per visit.
There is also detailed data on drugs. The statisticians reckon there were 2.2 million cannabis users in the UK in 2009, toking their way through weed worth more than £1.2bn. They calculate that half of that was home-grown – costing £154m in heat, light and "raw materials" to produce.
Will Spain Default?
By Roque at 2014-06-11 16:46
With 10Y yields trading below those of US Treasuries, asking the question of Spain's rising default risk seems risible but as Bloomberg's Maxime Sbaihi notes, the longer the euro flirts with deflation, the higher the risk that the heavily indebted (and becoming more so) countries will be tempted to default. Of course, this 'concern' is entirely ignored by the 'market' as Draghi has promised enough liquidity to soak up every short-dated bond but as the European Union's so-called "1/20 rule" suggests - requiring states to reduce excessive (over 60% Debt/GDP) by 1/20th every year or face a fine of 0.2% of GDP - Spain, it appears has 5 options to escape this vicious circle... and one of those is restructuring...( http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/06/20140611_spain.png )
To reduce its public debt, Spain can choose among five options, which are not mutually exclusive.
The first is to attempt to grow GDP faster than public debt in order to reduce the ratio. According to International Monetary Fund forecasts, annual GDP growth in Spain will remain below 1.3 percent until 2020. This is not enough to stabilize the debt ratio, according to Bloomberg Brief calculations.
The second option is to pursue fiscal adjustment until the primary balance — the budget balance without debt interest payments — reaches a surplus. With a primary deficit of 4 percent, Spain still needs further consolidation, heightening political risk from voters who show increasing signs of austerity fatigue. Reducing the deficit too quickly might also endanger the recovery.
Another option is financial repression, involving state-dictated measures such as interest-rate caps, direct lending to the government or regulation of capital flows. This runs up against reputation risk, political backlash and legal issues, especially in a currency union. Yet it remains a possibility after some features were implemented during the banking sector bailout in Cyprus.
Another even more radical option is to restructure or fully default on the debt. That has become more conceivable with the Greek precedent and years of austerity fatigue. In a December 2013 paper on debt restructuring, Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff warned: “restructurings will be needed, particularly, for example, in the periphery of Europe, far beyond anything discussed in public to this point.”
One final option is to rely on inflation. Spain’s public debt is fixed in nominal terms, except for one 5 billion euro inflation-linked bond issuance last month. Higher inflation means a lower real value for repayments. Given the current debt stock, even 3 percent inflation in Spain would only reduce public debt to GDP by 1 percentage point by 2025, according to Bloomberg Brief calculations based on IMF projections
Repression has been tried and the banks are already neck deep in it... growth is a joke in the new normal... fiscal adjustment is simply (as we have seen) too much pain for politicians... and inflation is going the wrong way... leaving one option (as unpalatable as it is)... default/restructure.
Wealth Of UK's 1000 Richest People Increased 15% In Past Year
By Roque at 2014-05-21 17:02
Wealth Of UK's 1000 Richest People Increased 15% In Past Year; Equal To 3.5x GDP Of Greece
From Tyler Durden
Confirming yet again that the global "recovery" benefits some #very few# more than others #the non-very few#, is the latest news out of the UK where the Sunday Times reports that the 1000 richest Britons now hold a cumulative £519 billion in wealth: a number which increased by 15% in the past year as the real disposable incomes of the non-richest declined. Putting this number in context, the "most well-off Britons now own the equivalent of a third of the country's gross domestic product #GDP#." Another way of looking at it: the wealth of 1000 Britons is 3.5x greater than the GDP of Greece.
More from SkyNews on a phenomenon which Marxist scholars everywhere are scratching their heads over, when the wrinkled answer is staring them all in the face from the Marriner Eccles building.
As well as the familiar names of Sir Richard Branson, Roman Abramovich and Sir Philip Green, the 2014 list features a number of new entrants.
They include Riccardo Zacconi, chief executive of King Digital Entertainment, and three other staff at the company behind the hugely popular Candy Crush Saga game.
Former Tesco boss Sir Terry Leahy and the brothers who masterminded the Grand Theft Auto franchise, Dan and Sam Houser, also join the top 1,000.
Philip Beresford, who has compiled the Rich List since 1989, said: "I've never seen such a phenomenal rise in personal wealth as the growth in the fortunes of Britain's 1,000 richest people over the past year.
"The richest people in Britain have had an astonishing year.
"While some may criticise them, many of these people are at the heart of the economy and their success brings more jobs and more wealth for the country."
This year's Rich List features 114 women - down four from 2013 but up 36 on a decade ago.
They include Tamara Mellon, who co-founded the Jimmy Choo shoes brand, and Harry Potter author JK Rowling.
The majority of those on the list live in London, with 438 of the richest 1,000 - collectively worth £331bn - calling the capital their home.
Hardly a surprise, considering the UK housing bubble is now officially on par with that of China #more shortly#, and "suddenly" even the BOE's Mark Carney is waking up to this particular reality.
AUTUMN STATEMENT 2013
By Roque at 2014-05-06 16:54
By Roque at 2014-05-06 16:53
The UK’s long-term debt
By Roque at 2014-05-06 16:48
The government inherited the largest deficit in post-war history due to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 and unsustainable pre-crisis increases in public spending. Over the 5 years from 2007-08 to 2012-13, public sector net debt increased by 37% of GDP. The only time the UK has experienced a larger 5 year rise in debt in peacetime since 1830 was following the depression of the early 1920s.
The UK’s high stock of debt means significant ongoing direct costs from interest payments. If debt remains high, these costs will be borne not only by the current generation but
also future generations.
The government’s consolidation plans over this Parliament are estimated to result in debt interest savings of around £10 billion per year by 2015-16.11 Nevertheless, interest payments on UK debt are forecast to be around £59 billion in 2015-16, more than the budget of the Department for Education. Reducing debt in furture will help control these costs. For every 10% of GDP that debt was lower, debt interest payments would be reduced by £8 billion a year.
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Government Gross Debt 2012 - 2017
By Roque at 2012-10-26 15:49
Ireland - Bailout programme had its first discussions about exiting it.
By Roque at 2012-10-26 15:16
The Government has held discussions with the Troika about what assistance would be available to Ireland as it exits the EU-IMF loan programme.
Read More: http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1025/troika-review-ireland-business.html?view=print?view=print
Britain's government deficit is at a record high
By Roque at 2012-10-16 09:37
Britain's government deficit is at a record high. Public sector net borrowing excluding financial sector interventions – the government's preferred measure – widened to £14.41bn from £14.37bn in August 2011 – and is now the largest it has been since monthly records began in 1993.
What is the deficit? When the ONS talks about the deficit, they take a simple measure - the gap between what's coming into the government in taxes and receipts versus what's being spent. Most commentators look at net borrowing as the deficit figure, because it includes investment spending. It's different to the national debt - which is the total the country owes.
So last month the budget was in deficit. Here are the key facts for August - if you exclude the temporary effects of the financial interventions in the banks:
• The public sector current budget in August was in deficit (not including investment) by £13.2bn; this is higher deficit than in August 2011, when it stood at £12.7bn;
• public sector net borrowing was £14.4bn; in August 2011, it was £14.365bn;
• public sector net debt at the end of April 2012 was over a trillion at £1,039.5bn (64.8% of GDP). This compares with £909.6bn (66.1% of GDP)
If you include the financial interventions, the big headline figure would take net borrowing to £12.4bn in August - and the net debt to over two trillion to £2,140.7bn.
The ONS data below shows monthly, quarterly and annual debt and deficit
UK Deficit Could Surpass Greece
By Roque at 2012-09-27 17:38
Bad news for U.K. politicians clinging to the notion that the nation’s AAA debt rating indicates a clean bill of financial health. Morgan Stanley expects the British budget shortfall to earn the dubious distinction as Europe’s largest in 2013-14, surpassing even the deficit in troubled Greece.
How many gold medals will get them out of debt?
By Roque at 2012-08-06 17:36
UK economy contracts by a shock 0.7pc
By Roque at 2012-07-31 11:12
Eurostat - Government debt at the end of the first quarter 2012
By Roque at 2012-07-24 10:40
More Information: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-23072012-AP/EN/2-23072012-AP-EN.PDF
If member states leave the Economic and Monetary Union?
By Roque at 2012-07-09 13:17
The euro crisis - A real mess
By Roque at 2012-07-03 11:35
Working Out of Debt
By Roque at 2012-06-25 09:54
The deleveraging process that began in 2008 is proving to be long and painful. Historical experience, particularly post–World War II debt reduction episodes, which the McKinsey Global Institute reviewed in a report two years ago, suggested this would be the case.1 And the eurozone’s debt crisis is just the latest demonstration of how toxic the consequences can be when countries have too much debt and too little growth.
We recently took another look forward and back—at the relevant lessons from history about how governments can support economic recovery amid deleveraging and at the signposts business leaders can watch to see where economies are in that process. We reviewed the experience of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain in depth, but the signals should be relevant for any country that’s deleveraging.
Overall, the deleveraging process has only just begun. During the past two and a half years, the ratio of debt to GDP, driven by rising government debt, has actually grown in the aggregate in the world’s ten largest developed economies (for more, see sidebar, “Deleveraging: Where are we now?” on page 12). Private-sector debt has fallen, however, which is in line with historical experience: overextended households and corporations typically lead the deleveraging process; governments begin to reduce their debts later, once they have supported the economy into recovery.
UK Budget data
By Sian Wright at 2012-03-27 14:45
NO spending cuts within the UK Budget projections for the next five years, â¦
â¦ UK government spending will increase, every year, including an expansion of +2.8% scheduled to be implemented this year.
The UK government is âbanking onâ growth in Revenue that will exceed the rate of growth in Expenditures, including growth of +3.5%
In order to âsupportâ a sizable EXPANSION in SPENDING over the next five years (pegged at +12.7%), the UK Treasury is RELYING on an astronomical rise in Revenue over that same five year period, pegged at +33.4%.
Revenue is forecast to rise by +184.2 billion GBP over the next five years, or by nearly +40 billion GBP per year. But Revenue in February, pegged at GBP 38.631 billion was (-) 1.9% BELOW the year-ago February revenue of 39.381 billion.
The government, while forecasting an improved labor market, job creation, and growth in real wages, is preparing to FIRE a massive 700,000 state employees. Moreover, the government plans to cut Welfare expenditures, and significantly reduce the amount of money allocated to Defense.
By Dif Broker at 2012-03-22 15:36
Economic Outlook of the Budget 2012
Debt in image
By Anna at 2012-02-16 14:16
Bank of England has added another £50 billion
By Sian Wright at 2012-02-10 14:37
Bank of England has added another £50 billion to its “asset purchase programme”
Boston Consulting - Back to Mesopotamia
By Sian Wright at 2012-02-10 13:00
Boston Consulting in this study arrived to the conclusion that total debt within a sovereign entity must be maintained below 180% of GDP. It will take 21 trillion of de leveraging in the US, UK and Europe to reach levels of 180%
By Anna Dabrowska at 2012-02-10 12:52
Video in English, posted on DIF Broker Portuguese panel site.
From Demon ocracy Info
By Sian Wright at 2012-02-10 09:51
Amazing the amount of debt
Euro area government debt down to 87.4% of GDP
By João de Deus at 2012-02-06 13:33
Eurostat publishes for the first time a News Release with quarterly data on government debt. This new quarterly euro-indicator will be issued around four months after the end of the quarter of reference.
Uk debt passes 1 trillion pounds (the Telegraph By Szu Ping Chan)
By Sian Wright at 2012-02-01 16:42
Public sector net debt excluding financial interventions, such as bank bail-outs, rose to £1.004 trillion in December, as the Government borrowed nearly £14bn last month despite its continued austerity drive.
The £1 trillion figure was the highest since records began in 1993, and represents 64pc of GDP. The Treasury has not recorded an annual surplus since 2001/02, when it repaid £243m into the nation's coffers.
The Government has forecast that servicing Britain's debt will cost £47.6bn in the current financial year, rising to £65.5bn in 2016/17.
A Treasury spokesman said: "That our national debt has reached more than £1 trillion simply shows the unsustainable level of spending this country built up over the past few years, and shows why it is critical for our nation's future that we deal decisively with the deficit."
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said it expected the figure to ease back in January due to tax inflows, but to rise again in February.
Eurozone debt web from BBC
By Sian Wright at 2012-01-31 10:41
How nicely explain by the BBC how some debt is different from other. We will see in the future if it is really that different.